TL;DR — All 6 AI models agree on a Lyon home win against Auxerre in Ligue 1. The ScoreGPT consensus predicts a 1-0 scoreline with 75% confidence, with 3 models forecasting a 1-0 exact score. The strongest value lies on Under 2.5 Goals, where the average model probability (~57%) significantly exceeds the market-implied probability (~53%).
Match Overview
- Competition: Ligue 1 — Matchweek 31
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Kickoff: 13:00 UTC
- Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
- Standings: Lyon (3rd, 54 pts) vs Auxerre (16th, 25 pts)
Lyon arrive on the back of a statement 2-1 win at PSG, sitting one point clear of 5th in a fierce four-way Champions League qualification battle. Auxerre are four points adrift of safety with four games left, though they're unbeaten in four (W1 D3) including a gutsy 2-2 draw at Monaco.
What 6 AI Models Predict
| Model | Result | Score | Confidence | |---|---|---|---| | ScoreGPT (Consensus) | Home Win | 1-0 | 75% | | Kimi K2.5 | Home Win | 1-0 | 58% | | Claude Opus 4.6 | Home Win | 1-0 | 54% | | GPT-5.4 | Home Win | 1-0 | 56% | | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Home Win | 2-0 | 65% | | Grok 4.20 | Home Win | 2-1 | 28% |
Unanimous result: All six models back a Lyon home win. Three models (Kimi K2.5, Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5.4) land on a 1-0 exact score — the ScoreGPT consensus prediction. Gemini 3.1 Pro is the most confident of the standalone models at 65%, while Grok 4.20 is notably cautious at just 28%, flagging Auxerre's recent resilience and the 2-2 at Monaco as cause for concern.
Consensus Analysis
The AI models converge on three core themes:
1. Lyon's Elite Home Defense — Lyon have conceded just 10 goals in 14 home matches (0.71 per game), the joint-best home defensive record in Ligue 1. They've also recorded a league-high 15 clean sheets this season. Four of Lyon's last five victories have come with clean sheets.
2. Auxerre's Away Struggles — Auxerre have managed just 1 win in 15 away league matches (D6 L8) and score a paltry 0.83 goals per game — joint-fewest in Ligue 1 (25 total). Their 64% Under 2.5 rate across the season reinforces the low-scoring outlook.
3. Lyon's Injury Crisis Limits Scoring — This is the critical underappreciated factor. Lyon are without Pavel Šulc (11 goals — top scorer) and Corentin Tolisso (8 goals — 2nd highest), plus Malick Fofana, Ernest Nuamah, and Rémi Himbert — roughly 42% of Lyon's Ligue 1 goals sidelined. As Kimi K2.5 notes: "Lyon's last 6 wins all saw ≤2 goals scored — this is a structural feature of Fonseca's setup, not variance." The reverse fixture this season finished 0-0 at Auxerre.
Minor disagreement: Whether Auxerre can score. They've netted in 6 consecutive league visits to Lyon historically, but their current injury list (Ahamada suspended, Diomande out, Léon and Oppegård doubtful) severely weakens both defensive structure and attacking threat. Three models predict 1-0 (clean sheet), one predicts 2-0 (clean sheet), and only Grok 4.20 sees a 2-1 with an Auxerre consolation.
Value Detection
Value detected on Under 2.5 Goals.
Here's the math:
- Average model probability for Under 2.5: ~57% (GPT-5.4 pegs it at 56%, Claude Opus 4.6 at ~57-58%)
- Market implied probability (bet365): ~53% (U2.5 at odds of ~1.90-2.00)
- Value gap: ~4-5 percentage points, translating to approximately +8% expected value
The market is overreacting to last weekend's high-scoring headlines — Lyon's 2-1 win at PSG and Auxerre's 2-2 draw at Monaco — while underpricing Lyon's depleted attack and the structural Under 2.5 tendencies of both sides. Claude Opus 4.6 captures it perfectly: "The market is pricing this game's goal total as if Lyon have their full attacking complement. They don't."
Alternative combo play: Kimi K2.5 flags a Lyon win + Under 2.5 Goals combination at ~2.80, estimating a ~42% true probability vs ~36% market implied — a further ~6 percentage point edge for those seeking a higher-odds option.
No significant value detected on the 1X2 market — Lyon at 1.67 (bet365) aligns reasonably with the average model probability of ~60-65% for a home win, though Gemini 3.1 Pro argues the true probability is closer to 68-70%.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Lyon vs Auxerre?
All 6 AI models predict Lyon to win. The ScoreGPT consensus gives Lyon a 75% confidence rating for a 1-0 victory. Lyon have won 10 of 14 home matches this season (71% win rate at Parc Olympique Lyonnais), while Auxerre have managed just 1 away win in 15 attempts.
What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Auxerre?
The ScoreGPT consensus predicts 1-0, matching the forecasts from Kimi K2.5, Claude Opus 4.6, and GPT-5.4. Gemini 3.1 Pro predicts 2-0, and Grok 4.20 predicts 2-1. The reverse fixture this season finished 0-0, and Lyon's last 6 victories have all featured under 2.5 total goals.
Is Under 2.5 goals a good bet for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Yes — this is the strongest value play according to the AI models. The average model probability for Under 2.5 Goals is ~57%, while the market implies ~53% at odds of 1.90-2.00. With Lyon missing 42% of their league goal-scorers (Šulc and Tolisso out) and Auxerre's 64% Under 2.5 rate in Ligue 1, the models see a clear statistical edge on the under.
How accurate are ScoreGPT's AI models?
Over the last 30 days across all predictions, ScoreGPT achieved a 44.6% result accuracy (75 correct out of 168) with a +2.27% ROI on bets. The strongest individual performer has been Grok 4.20 (+15.14% ROI, 48.4% result accuracy) and GPT-5.4 (+9.64% ROI, 53.1% bet win rate).
Predictions by ScoreGPT using 6 independent AI models. For informational and entertainment purposes only. Download ScoreGPT free on iOS.